Because of global travel, a pandemic will get a foothold everywhere so what is important is that the plans that have been drawn up are followed .
-Professor Stephen Field, of the Royal College of GPs
2009年4月28日
2009年4月27日
Pandemic: What would happen next?
(CNN) -- The world hasn't seen a pandemic in 41 years, when the "Hong Kong" flu crossed the globe and killed about one million people worldwide. If swine flu reaches pandemic levels, what would happen next?
Recurrent outbreaks of Avian Influenza and the outbreak of SARS in 2003 rang alarm bells as potential pandemics.
Recurrent outbreaks of Avian Influenza and the outbreak of SARS in 2003 rang alarm bells as potential pandemics.
Although both jumped the "animal-to-human" barrier, neither disease mutated enough to enable sustained human-to-human infection, said Dr. K.Y. Yuen, head of microbiology at Hong Kong University.
Strictly speaking, Avian Influenza and SARS did not become pandemics because they were too good at killing their hosts.
"For a sustained pandemic, it needs to be able to maintain human-to-human contact without killing its host off," he said.
Avian influenza "never became a man-to-man disease," said Dr. Lo Wing-Luk, an infectious disease expert.
"Swine flu is already a man-to-man disease, which makes it much more difficult to manage . and swine flu appears much more infectious than SARS."
But the WHO cautions, it cannot say whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic. According to epidemiologists and health experts, here's what the world might see if there is another pandemic, based on past experience.
The disease would skip from city to city over an 18-to-24 month period, infecting more than a third of the population. World health Organization officials believe as many as 1.5 billion people around the globe would seek medical care and nearly 30 million would seek hospitalization.
Based on the last pandemic and current world population, as many as 7 million people could die, epidemiologists said.
"Hospitals will become overcrowded, schools will close, businesses will close, airports will be empty," Dr. Lo said.
"Hospitals will become overcrowded, schools will close, businesses will close, airports will be empty," Dr. Lo said.
"Business will become very bad, as people avoid as much social contact as possible," added Dr. Yuen.
Health facilities will become overrun with patients and there would be less-than-adequate staffing, as medical health professionals fall ill themselves, experts say. "We saw cases in SARS where people who should have gone to the hospital for things like cancer treatment didn't go, and that resulted in higher deaths," Dr. Lo said.
The very young and very old will likely be the most susceptible to the illness.
Experts caution, much is still unknown about the current swine flu virus and its severity and it is too early to say whether it will lead to a pandemic. Right now, the focus is on finding answers and containing the spread
Comment:
In my memories, there also had been a worldwide pandemic causing lot of disasters in 2003.It’s SARS.I have still remembered that it killed many people and damaged our country when I was preparing my entrance exam of senior high. Everyone was afraid of it .Though this terrible experience, we have thought that pain have already left, we are save.
After 6 years, something dangerous starts changing our peaceful world. Yes, pandemic disease-Swine flu burst out from Mexico. It’s a caution that every country should take this problem seriously. In order to avoid spreading out of the world, we should prevent it and prepare well if it'll happen.
After 6 years, something dangerous starts changing our peaceful world. Yes, pandemic disease-Swine flu burst out from Mexico. It’s a caution that every country should take this problem seriously. In order to avoid spreading out of the world, we should prevent it and prepare well if it'll happen.
2009年4月20日
Quote of this week
We don't expect them to change overnight... but we do expect that Cuba will send signals that they're interested in liberalising
---US President Barack Obama
---US President Barack Obama
Clinton admits Cuba policy failed
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has said that US policy towards Cuba has failed, welcoming an offer to talk from the Cuban president.
She said the US was "taking a serious look" at how to respond to President Raul Castro's comments, which she called an "overture".
Mr Castro had said he was ready for discussions covering human rights, political prisoners and press freedom.
The US passed a law this week easing restrictions on Cuban Americans.
The move will allow Cuban Americans to visit relatives in Cuba and send money home more easily.
Veto threat
Correspondents say a series of exchanges between the US and Cuba suggest that both sides appear to be making efforts to find a way to end their 50-year stalemate.
US President Barack Obama has said it is now up to Cuba to make the next move if relations are to be further improved.
He said the US expected Cuba to "send signals that they're interested in liberalising". He also cautioned that relations would not mend "overnight".
Mrs Clinton made her comments about Cuba in the Dominican Republic, ahead of the Summit of the Americas that begins in Trinidad and Tobago later on Friday.
"We are continuing to look for productive ways forward because we view the present policy as having failed," she said at a press conference.
"We welcome his comments and the overture they represent, and we are taking a very serious look at how to respond," Mrs Clinton said.
Cuba is excluded from the summit, which includes 34 members of the Organisation of American States (OAS), though Latin American leaders have been calling for the communist country to be readmitted.
OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza said on Friday he would ask the organisation's members to readmit Cuba, 47 years after it was suspended.
Mr Insulza said he would put the proposal to a meeting of the OAS general assembly in Honduras at the end of May.
Speaking to Latin American leaders in Venezuela on Thursday, President Castro said he had sent word to the US government "in private and in public" that he is open to negotiations as long as they are "on equal terms".
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he would veto the final declaration from the OAS summit because of Cuba's exclusion.
She said the US was "taking a serious look" at how to respond to President Raul Castro's comments, which she called an "overture".
Mr Castro had said he was ready for discussions covering human rights, political prisoners and press freedom.
The US passed a law this week easing restrictions on Cuban Americans.
The move will allow Cuban Americans to visit relatives in Cuba and send money home more easily.
Veto threat
Correspondents say a series of exchanges between the US and Cuba suggest that both sides appear to be making efforts to find a way to end their 50-year stalemate.
US President Barack Obama has said it is now up to Cuba to make the next move if relations are to be further improved.
He said the US expected Cuba to "send signals that they're interested in liberalising". He also cautioned that relations would not mend "overnight".
Mrs Clinton made her comments about Cuba in the Dominican Republic, ahead of the Summit of the Americas that begins in Trinidad and Tobago later on Friday.
"We are continuing to look for productive ways forward because we view the present policy as having failed," she said at a press conference.
"We welcome his comments and the overture they represent, and we are taking a very serious look at how to respond," Mrs Clinton said.
Cuba is excluded from the summit, which includes 34 members of the Organisation of American States (OAS), though Latin American leaders have been calling for the communist country to be readmitted.
OAS Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza said on Friday he would ask the organisation's members to readmit Cuba, 47 years after it was suspended.
Mr Insulza said he would put the proposal to a meeting of the OAS general assembly in Honduras at the end of May.
Speaking to Latin American leaders in Venezuela on Thursday, President Castro said he had sent word to the US government "in private and in public" that he is open to negotiations as long as they are "on equal terms".
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said he would veto the final declaration from the OAS summit because of Cuba's exclusion.
Comment:
As we know, the U.S have had a very tense and poor relationship with Cuba since 1960s. There have been some In this period,there are some conflicts between this two countries. For instance, Cuban Missile Crisis is a classical case which made the WWⅢ possible. However,40 years passed,the situation of the world have changed a lot,Therefore,I think how to create a new start between each other and try to find a mutual cooperation is the much more important way to solve the problem.
In my opinion,I think the allocation of power in the world has changed a lot. There are some strong powers(entities) playing a critical role on every part of the world,such as the U.S,China,EU and so on. On the other hand,there are also some unstable regional conflicts making troubles in order to attract people's attention ,such as North Korea,the Middle East. As a result, I think the best diplomatic policy for the U.S is to eliminate the regional unstable forces and cooperate with those so called” strong power.
2009年4月13日
Oil falls as demand set to slow
The price of oil has fallen sharply after the International Energy Agency predicted that the global recession would cut demand for crude this year.
The IEA said on Friday that world oil demand would fall by 2.4 million barrels a day to 83.4 million barrels.
US light crude fell by $3.26 to $48.98 a barrel. London Brent oil was down by $3.02 at $51.04.
Since hitting a record high of more than $147 a barrel in July last year, oil prices have slumped.
'Demand destruction'
The Paris-based IEA said its forecast of lower oil demand was influenced by "a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010".
It also noted that developed countries' oil inventories had risen in February to 61.6 days of forward cover, the highest since 1993.
Victor Shum, an analyst in Singapore with the Pervin & Gertz consultancy, said the IEA's lower forecast represented "very serious demand destruction".
"The macroeconomics don't look good at all for this year," he added.
The price of oil dropped below $40 a barrel at the end of 2008 before recovering slightly, but remains nearly $100 below peak levels
The IEA said on Friday that world oil demand would fall by 2.4 million barrels a day to 83.4 million barrels.
US light crude fell by $3.26 to $48.98 a barrel. London Brent oil was down by $3.02 at $51.04.
Since hitting a record high of more than $147 a barrel in July last year, oil prices have slumped.
'Demand destruction'
The Paris-based IEA said its forecast of lower oil demand was influenced by "a growing consensus that economic and oil demand recovery will be deferred to 2010".
It also noted that developed countries' oil inventories had risen in February to 61.6 days of forward cover, the highest since 1993.
Victor Shum, an analyst in Singapore with the Pervin & Gertz consultancy, said the IEA's lower forecast represented "very serious demand destruction".
"The macroeconomics don't look good at all for this year," he added.
The price of oil dropped below $40 a barrel at the end of 2008 before recovering slightly, but remains nearly $100 below peak levels
Comment：
Last year,oil price had rising to more than $147 a barrel. Every part of the world were influenced by this terrible situation. Not only most of countries decreased the demand for the oil,but also tried to find the other alternative energy to replace this high-priced one. When everyone has trying to adjust their policies in order to face this crisis,the oil price fell sharply. Maybe it will cause another economic crisis(the second wave)?
I think this oil price should be kept in a stable level. No matter the price rises or falls,it still has a great impact on our lives. The lower price it is, the greater loss of oil producer may have. The higher price it is,the poorer consumption capability of oil people will have.
2009年4月6日
Quote of this week
Obama is a seducer, in the nicest possible way of course. He smiles and refers to himself as Hussein and does all the other things that make Europeans swoon. Then he has his way. Or does he...? -Justin Webb BBC North America editor
Obama reaches out to Muslim world
Barack Obama has declared that the US "is not at war with Islam", in a major speech during his first visit as president to a mainly Muslim country.
Addressing the Turkish parliament, Mr Obama called for a greater partnership with the Muslim world and said the US would soon launch outreach programmes.
"America's relationship with the Muslim world cannot and will not be based on opposition to al-Qaeda," he said.
Mr Obama also said Washington supported Turkey's efforts to join the EU.
Earlier, at a news conference with his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, he urged Turkey to help bridge the gap between the Muslim and Western worlds.
He said his visit was a "statement about the importance of Turkey, not just to the United States, but to the world".
The US president began his visit to Turkey on Monday morning by laying a wreath at the tomb of the founder of modern Turkish state, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,whose "vision and courage" he praised.
He then travelled to the presidential palace in Ankara for talks with President Abdullah Gul, before giving an address to the Turkish Grand National Assembly.
Mr Obama devoted much of his speech to calling for a greater bond between Americans and Muslims, admitting that "the trust that binds us has been strained".
"Let me say this as clearly as I can: the United States is not and will never be at war with Islam," he stated.
"In fact, our partnership with the Muslim world is critical in rolling back a fringe ideology that people of all faiths reject."
He said: "The United States has been enriched by Muslim Americans. Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country - I know, because I am one of them.
"And when people look back on this time, let it be said of America that we extended the hand of friendship," he said.
"There is an old Turkish proverb: 'You cannot put out fire with flames.'"
BBC North America editor Justin Webb in Ankara says there are some back in the US who wonder if Mr Obama is going too far, but his intention seems clear.
He is on a mission to charm with the hope that in years to come, there is a tangible benefit for America and the world, our correspondent says.
'Crucial ally'
In his speech, Mr Obama said the US considered Turkey a "critical ally", despite the deterioration of their relations over the war in Iraq.
He said that while they had not always agreed on everything, the two states were stronger when they worked together.
Obama is a seducer, in the nicest possible way of course. He smiles and refers to himself as Hussein and does all the other things that make Europeans swoon. Then he has his way. Or does he...?
"That is why we must listen to one another, and seek common ground," he said.
The president also reiterated that the US government strongly supported Turkey's bid to become a member of the European Union.
"Europe gains by diversity of ethnicity, tradition and faith - it is not diminished by it," he said to a round of applause from the audience. "And Turkish membership would broaden and strengthen Europe's foundation once more."
The EU agreed to open accession talks with Ankara in 2004, but in recent years Turkey has made little progress with democratic reforms which would improve its chances of membership, correspondents say.
Later in his address, Mr Obama said the US strongly supported the full normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
At his earlier news conference with President Gul, he had stood by his 2008 assertion that the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 constituted "genocide" - without repeating the word.
Several groups have been demonstrating against the visit
The issue remains highly sensitive between the governments of Armenia and Turkey, which denies those killed were victims of systematic genocide, and has prevented normal relations between them for many years.
During his election campaign, Mr Obama said the "Armenian genocide is not an allegation, a personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather a widely documented fact supported by an overwhelming body of historical evidence".
After his speech, Mr Obama was due to meet Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The US leader will then leave Ankara for Istanbul, where he will attend the Alliance of Civilizations forum
Addressing the Turkish parliament, Mr Obama called for a greater partnership with the Muslim world and said the US would soon launch outreach programmes.
"America's relationship with the Muslim world cannot and will not be based on opposition to al-Qaeda," he said.
Mr Obama also said Washington supported Turkey's efforts to join the EU.
Earlier, at a news conference with his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, he urged Turkey to help bridge the gap between the Muslim and Western worlds.
He said his visit was a "statement about the importance of Turkey, not just to the United States, but to the world".
The US president began his visit to Turkey on Monday morning by laying a wreath at the tomb of the founder of modern Turkish state, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk,whose "vision and courage" he praised.
He then travelled to the presidential palace in Ankara for talks with President Abdullah Gul, before giving an address to the Turkish Grand National Assembly.
Mr Obama devoted much of his speech to calling for a greater bond between Americans and Muslims, admitting that "the trust that binds us has been strained".
"Let me say this as clearly as I can: the United States is not and will never be at war with Islam," he stated.
"In fact, our partnership with the Muslim world is critical in rolling back a fringe ideology that people of all faiths reject."
He said: "The United States has been enriched by Muslim Americans. Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country - I know, because I am one of them.
"And when people look back on this time, let it be said of America that we extended the hand of friendship," he said.
"There is an old Turkish proverb: 'You cannot put out fire with flames.'"
BBC North America editor Justin Webb in Ankara says there are some back in the US who wonder if Mr Obama is going too far, but his intention seems clear.
He is on a mission to charm with the hope that in years to come, there is a tangible benefit for America and the world, our correspondent says.
'Crucial ally'
In his speech, Mr Obama said the US considered Turkey a "critical ally", despite the deterioration of their relations over the war in Iraq.
He said that while they had not always agreed on everything, the two states were stronger when they worked together.
Obama is a seducer, in the nicest possible way of course. He smiles and refers to himself as Hussein and does all the other things that make Europeans swoon. Then he has his way. Or does he...?
"That is why we must listen to one another, and seek common ground," he said.
The president also reiterated that the US government strongly supported Turkey's bid to become a member of the European Union.
"Europe gains by diversity of ethnicity, tradition and faith - it is not diminished by it," he said to a round of applause from the audience. "And Turkish membership would broaden and strengthen Europe's foundation once more."
The EU agreed to open accession talks with Ankara in 2004, but in recent years Turkey has made little progress with democratic reforms which would improve its chances of membership, correspondents say.
Later in his address, Mr Obama said the US strongly supported the full normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia.
At his earlier news conference with President Gul, he had stood by his 2008 assertion that the killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 constituted "genocide" - without repeating the word.
Several groups have been demonstrating against the visit
The issue remains highly sensitive between the governments of Armenia and Turkey, which denies those killed were victims of systematic genocide, and has prevented normal relations between them for many years.
During his election campaign, Mr Obama said the "Armenian genocide is not an allegation, a personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather a widely documented fact supported by an overwhelming body of historical evidence".
After his speech, Mr Obama was due to meet Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The US leader will then leave Ankara for Istanbul, where he will attend the Alliance of Civilizations forum
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